As the price of gas rises with no sign of ever going back to moderate prices, the economy is in the tank though with some slight indicators of recovery, the dollar does a dipsey doodle beyond anyone’s ability to predict. Just another day on planet earth or the sign of a coming apocalypse? The pessimist would say with global warming upon us, wars across the globe, overwhelming poverty – that perhaps we are near the end. The optimist says, “yeah, we’ve seen this act before so no worries.” However, somewhere deep inside those optimists they feel a twitch and for the briefest of moments believe, something else is wrong this time.
Welcome to Peak Oil
Everyone understands that oil is a limited resource since it is a fossil fuel and takes millions of years to create. We have always accepted this fact about oil but it has always been some other generation’s headache. Experts have always believed that the oil termination deadline would be around 2080 and we have plenty of time and oil left. The reality is quite different. Oil production costs versus supply have reached its natural peak.
The peak results from the cost of extracting the oil compared to the supply being worth the effort to extract it. Prior to reaching this peak, oil is plentiful enough to make extraction worthwhile – after the peak, there is not enough oil to necessitate extracting it. It is simply too expensive to get the oil. We are in the midst of this peak as this is being written.
Of course, no one would officially admit to this but then they do not need to and why would they? Clearly, the proof is in the cost of a barrel of oil. Currently over eighty dollars a barrel. That is down considerably from just a few months ago when it was hitting record highs daily. Oil prices have ben a large part of the burden concerning the latest recession.
Did We See This Coming?
A geologist from Shell back in 1956 determined quite accurately that there would be a peak in oil production in the nineteen seventies. He drew it up in a bell curve and this became known as “Hubbert’s Peak” aka Peak Oil named after Dr. Marion King Hubbert, that geologist. Since that time, oil industry experts and even the US vice president have been warning about peak oil in speeches.
Cheney stated in one of these speeches that there would be an annual average growth in demand for oil conservatively of two percent in the coming years. Coupled with a decline in production from existing stock, that will mean an additional fifty million barrels per day. Cheney as much as admitted that demand has outstripped supply and eleven years ago predicted in his words peak oil hitting us by 2010.
How Will We Be Effected
Oil makes our economies move. Imagine no more cars, medicines, food prices sky rocket due to production and transport costs rising, all things transported are priced out of reach or not produced at all. Oil currently runs our world and no more oil means bad news all around. Even alternate sources of fuel and vehicles running green need oil to manufacture them in the first place.
Most tragic will be the rise in food costs and how the economic situation will affect social scenarios around the world. Everything will be more expensive to produce including medicine. Experts in the world capitols believe that resource wars will become common as fighting erupts over what fragile reserves remain. The geo-socio-economic reality is frightening. Governments are preparing now for eventualities and some believe that recent wars were a result of securing western oil futures.
What Can Be Done Now?
It would be prudent to begin preparations for the eventuality of life without oil for the masses. Some people are going green and disconnecting their homes from the grid in an attempt to be self sufficient, storing and stockpiling dry goods and food. Others are purchasing fuel-efficient transportation but to what end? This type of preparation certainly cannot do any harm but the problem simmers.
From a personal standpoint, people should try and avoid any debt. Avoiding panic by staying up to date on the world situation and what is being done globally to lessen the fallout will aid in emotional upset. Probably the most important thing an individual can do is prod their government to focus on alternative sources of fuel and power at all socio-economic levels to maintain our lifestyles.
What government needs now more than ever is a large budget, labor heavy commitment to new energy solutions on a scale unseen since the Manhattan project to develop the nuclear bomb during World War II, the Marshall plan to save Europe after the war or better still, a program like the one that took man to the moon. If an effort were put in place similar to how America ramped up its armed forces after entering World War II, we could be off oil in five years according to many experts. Think about that and the jobs created in doing so.
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